HomePredictions

Prediction Markets

Bet on the future of AI compute. Trade on GPU prices, model releases, and compute index movements.

Total Volume

$9.0M

Active Markets

Trending Markets

MCI Index

Will the MCI Index exceed 130 by March 31, 2026?

62%$847K vol

H100 80GB

Will H100 80GB rental price drop below $2.00/hr by Q2 2026?

71%$1240K vol

A100 80GB

Will A100 80GB rental price drop below $1.00/hr by March 2026?

83%$956K vol

GPT-5

Will GPT-5 input pricing be below $1.00/1M tokens at launch?

28%$1890K vol

IndexMCI Index

HotMar 31

Will the MCI Index exceed 130 by March 31, 2026?

62%

chance

$847K Vol1,243 traders

IndexMCI Index

Jun 30

Will the MCI Index drop below 100 by June 2026?

24%

chance

$523K Vol876 traders

GPUH100 80GB

HotJun 30

Will H100 80GB rental price drop below $2.00/hr by Q2 2026?

71%

chance

$1.2M Vol2,156 traders

GPUH200

Apr 30

Will H200 availability exceed 100K units across major clouds by April 2026?

55%

chance

$678K Vol934 traders

GPUA100 80GB

HotMar 31

Will A100 80GB rental price drop below $1.00/hr by March 2026?

83%

chance

$956K Vol1,567 traders

GPURTX 4090

Apr 30

Will RTX 4090 rental price increase above $0.80/hr due to gaming demand?

31%

chance

$234K Vol445 traders

GPUMI300X

Dec 31

Will AMD MI300X capture >15% of the cloud GPU market by end of 2026?

42%

chance

$412K Vol723 traders

GPUB200

Sep 30

Will NVIDIA B200 be available for rent below $5.00/hr by Q3 2026?

38%

chance

$567K Vol891 traders

ModelGPT-5

HotJun 30

Will GPT-5 input pricing be below $1.00/1M tokens at launch?

28%

chance

$1.9M Vol3,421 traders

ModelClaude 4

Jul 1

Will Anthropic release Claude 4 before July 2026?

67%

chance

$734K Vol1,289 traders

ModelDeepSeek R2

Apr 30

Will DeepSeek R2 become the most-used model on Mercatus by April?

45%

chance

$345K Vol567 traders

ModelLlama 4

Sep 30

Will Meta release Llama 4 with >1T parameters before Q3 2026?

52%

chance

$623K Vol1,045 traders

How Prediction Markets Work

Choose a Market

Browse GPU price, model release, or compute index prediction markets.

Buy Yes or No

Each share costs between 1¢ and 99¢. The price reflects the market's probability estimate.

Trade Anytime

Sell your position at any time before the market resolves for a profit or to cut losses.

Get Paid

If you're right, each share pays out $1.00. If wrong, it pays $0. Settlement is automatic.